Twenty-nine squadrons for a forty-two squadron job.

The Air Force is the service where the gap between need and supply is widest, and where the engine decides everything.

The fleet and its gaps.

Fighter squadrons: 29 against 42 sanctioned. Tribune, 23 Jul 2025
MiG-21: Retired on 26 Sep 2025 at Chandigarh after 62 years. PIB Year-End Review 2025
Rafale: 36 in service since 2020. The Defence Acquisition Council approved 114 more on 12 Feb 2026, about 90 to be made in India. The contract is not yet signed. Naval News, 13 Feb 2026
Su-30MKI: The backbone. 12 more ordered from HAL for ₹13,500 crore in Dec 2024. All India Radio, 12 Dec 2024
Tejas Mk1A: 180 ordered: 83 in 2021 and 97 for over ₹62,370 crore in Sep 2025. None handed over yet. GE delivered 6 of 11 promised F404 engines in 2025-26. PIB Year-End Review 2025 · ThePrint, 1 Apr 2026
Prachand helicopters: 156 Light Combat Helicopters for ₹62,700 crore, signed 28 Mar 2025. PIB Year-End Review 2025
C-295: 56 transports. 16 built in Spain and all delivered. 40 to be built by Tata at Vadodara. ThePrint, 30 Jul 2025
MQ-9B: 31 drones for all three services, signed 15 Oct 2024, with maintenance in India. All India Radio, 15 Oct 2024

AMCA, and the engine under it.

Approval: The Cabinet Committee on Security cleared design and development in Mar 2024. The execution model, open to private and public firms, was approved on 27 May 2025. Business Standard, 27 May 2025
Shortlist: Tata Advanced Systems; L&T with BEL and Dynamatic; Bharat Forge with BEML and Data Patterns. HAL was not shortlisted. Livefist, 4 Feb 2026
Bids: Final bids due 30 Oct 2026. No winner yet. (reported) Indian Masterminds, 18 Oct 2026
Timeline: Five prototypes. First flight not before 2028-29. Induction around 2035. At least 120 aircraft. Livefist, 4 Feb 2026
Engine: A 110–120 kN engine co-developed by Safran and GTRE, about ₹30,000 crore, awaiting Cabinet approval. Livefist, 19 Jan 2026
GE F414 with HAL: A technical agreement on 14 Apr 2026. The commercial contract is pending. The share of technology transferred is disputed. (disputed) The Wire, 16 Apr 2026

Sit at the table while it is being laid.

FCAS ends: France and Germany ended the joint fighter on 8 Jun 2026. Only the shared combat cloud survives. Euronews, 9 Jun 2026
France goes alone: France will build its own fighter (the ACF) to fly by 2040. A demonstrator may fly in 2031–32. Partners will sit in different frameworks that "won’t be structural". Defense News, 15 Oct 2026 · AeroTime, 9 Oct 2026
India and France: The Ministry of Defence told Parliament it has initiated efforts to co-join the French programme. The Defence Secretary said in Oct 2026 that India has expressed interest. No agreement exists. ThePrint, 8 Aug 2026 · The Week, 5 Oct 2026
GCAP: UK, Italy and Japan hold equal thirds. A £4.6 bn contract was signed on 1 Jul 2026. A demonstrator flies by end-2027 and the jet enters service in 2035. Canada became an observer in Jul 2026 and Germany is in talks. Japan MoD, 6 Jul 2026 · Government of Canada, Jul 2026 · The Aviationist, 4 Oct 2026
GCAP and India: Japan reportedly briefed New Delhi in Feb 2025 and proposed Indian participation. Neither side has confirmed it. (reported) EurAsian Times, citing Kyodo

My view
Join one as a co-developer, not a buyer. Bring the money, the market of 120 aircraft and the engineers. Take back the right to build, modify and export. That is how the fifth generation becomes the last one India has to wait for.