समाचार Samāchār · Business · 31 October 2026

Fiscal deficit hits 42% of the year’s target by September as excise falls 22%

The Centre’s deficit for April to September was ₹7.14 lakh crore, against 36.5% of target a year ago. Capex is ahead of pace. Revenue is behind it.

The Centre has used 42.1% of its full-year deficit budget in the first six months. The Controller General of Accounts released the numbers on 30 October. The fiscal deficit for April to September was ₹7.14 lakh crore, against a budget estimate of ₹16.96 lakh crore. A year ago the government had used 36.5% at this point. Reuters put the deficit about 25% higher than last year, roughly $75 billion.

The gap is on the revenue side. Net tax revenue was ₹12.76 lakh crore, up nearly 4% and 44.5% of target. Union excise duty fell 22% to ₹1.08 lakh crore. Business Standard links that to the ₹10 a litre cut in special additional excise on petrol and diesel in late March, made as crude rose after the West Asia war began. Income tax rose about 7% to ₹6.31 lakh crore. Customs rose nearly 17%.

Spending ran ahead. Total expenditure was ₹25.5 lakh crore, 47.7% of the budget against 45.5% a year ago. Capital expenditure was ₹6.55 lakh crore, up 13% and 53.6% of target. That is the right kind of spending. But capex fell 30% in August and 3% in September. Interest payments took ₹6.46 lakh crore. Subsidies have used 54% of their budget, with urea at 73%.

ICRA chief economist Aditi Nayar told Business Standard that the asking rate for the second half stands at a considerable 16.2%, and that a miss on excise and income tax seems likely. She also warned that the two-month fall in capex may weigh on growth.

Fiscal discipline is not austerity. It is the room to keep building. The excise cut shielded households from an oil shock, and that choice has a cost the books now show. The better path for the second half is to protect capex, contain revenue spending and widen the tax base through compliance that is simple to meet.

What a founder takes from it: The quality of spending is holding. The revenue side is not. The second half will test whether the 4.3% target survives without a cut to capex, and that is the number every builder in infrastructure and manufacturing should watch.